Let’s Go Brandon
And no. It never gets Old

Ask me in a couple days.

I see a couple guys understand what inflation really is and it's cause

Truth

No way things settle down any time soon. In fact hard to believe it won't get worse in the short term. Vax mandates and trucker strikes are coming to a country near you.

You can't stomp us out, and you can't make us run.

The economic fundamentals indicate nothing but worse inflation. Unless it turns into catastrophic deflation/depression.

If the Omicron variant drops rapidly like it is now, then by spring the economy could really get rolling big time right when gas consumption is at a peak and a lot of natural gas etc. is diverted to agriculture chemical and fertilizer production. The best way to ration stuff in short supply is to raise the price. The issue is that most middle class workers and rural residents drive the most and thus economic impact will be greater in those sectors then in urban sectors.

Bryce

25% is my prediction.

Just filled the tank (propane) for $2,99 a gallon. Almost double from a year ago. I'll bite my tongue now since this is a family show.

Passed the point of no return.

Why? What's going to happen/ not happen in a couple days?

7.3% now, I predict double digit by the 3rd quarter.

I'm curious as to what interest rates will follow? Those could really hurt.

January's official CPI numbers come out on the 10th.

The expectation by the professionals is 7.3 percent. For the majority of the last year the pros have underestimated.

There is an old Chinese curse that said "may you live in interesting times.
We are living it

If anyone believes the numbers out of this administration on anything, well, I got a bridge for sale.

Won't have to worry about inflation in Illinois. The governor is giving the average family a $49 yearly break by forgiving the 1% tax on food. Yeah that will make everyone's fight against inflation easier. By election day there is no wonder what the offer may be. I guess the cure for a speeding train on a curve is more speed !

No need to worry about those images implanted in to our brains of a guy with a wheel barrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread. You won't need cash, the federal reserve will issue you a card to get your bread, that might be better than script to use at the company store. Its all in the pipeline that as of yet is flowing full flow and hasn't been dismantled, where is Joe when we need him?

The best hedge against inflation is to get a patent on your own new fiat, with the federal reserves approval of coarse or is it course?

I lived through inflation before, but the banks paid inflation adjusted interest on my savings. This time, not so far.

Inflation has been under reported for years. Thanks to the 0% interest rate. If you own a business it will be nightmare balancing pricing with costs.

One of the curses of the past was that the cheap dollars borrowed or given for favors in return for something (like votes) that was fueling inflation had to pay the piper at the end of the cycle in higher interest which was traditionally given to depositors. But I guess some might think it conceivable if they do away with the cash then the charges will evaporate. Not to fret, they say one can eat any thing if cooked right, even rats. Oh, wasn't it eating bats and rats that propelled us further along to here? Correction, it was those gassy grass eating cows not rats that caused it.

Doom, despair and perfect agony, lol.

About time the interest rates go up. The current rates are ridiculous. I know my 89 year old Mom has been feeling it for years.
Used to be you could get 4-5% on savings now its practically 0.
Very hard on retired peoples savings.

The practice of zero interest rates fuels the economy with borrowed money, the borrowed money is created out of thin air causing inflation as a side effect.
That on top of gov't printing money makes for a double whammy.

Lots of moving parts in this scenario.
I expect we will see higher 'official' readings for at least another 6-9 months but then things could back off a little.
I think bblwi is correct to an extent that the virus will play a big role.


This whole thing began as a demand decline when the world shut down The Fed pumped in trillions of dollars but there was nowhere to spend it because of supply chain issues.

Now that more people are healthier and HOPEFULLY returning to work, supply may increase and people will spend all those stimulus funds they banked during the lock downs. Once those funds are spent. people will be forced back into the labor market and supply will further increase while demand comes back into a more normal configuration.

Persistent inflation requires persistent excess aggregate demand. I don't believe we will see that by this time next year if we can manage to keep the economies of the world from shutting down again.

I don't think we will be seeing less than 3-4% by the end of the year though. We may never see the rate back where it was pre-pandemic.

Between the Congress and the Fed, plans were to increase monetary & fiscal supply by 20% of GDP in 2019. It actually turned out to be 40% of gdp.

I also don't think Powell has the hair to raise rates all that much before the mid-term elections.......................and that might be the correct call.

The Fed almost always goes too far in one direction.

If the yield curves inverts, as Steven49er mentioned yesterday, we could be looking at a recession in 2023. What will the Fed do then ?? Reduce interest rates ??