.8 percent in the month April. YOY the forecast is now over 4 percent although anyone with a brain can see that will be taken out.

Transitory? Nothing to see here folks.

What ya think White? Will the FED be able to regain control?

We are grossly over spending at the federal level. Just when you think you have retired comfortably, you discover that you might need for the wife to get a job to allow you to fish and hunt.

WE, not I , but the Demo's got a lock on doing it !

Fixed it for ya.

Somebody on here used to have the signature line..."It's a lazy man that can't find his wife a second job."

Moosetrot

There goes that 4% pay raise.

Fed can't do anything.

If Fed raise rates much at all, between debt service and entitlements there won't be any discretionary spending room in the budget if anyone cares about such things.

If the FED raises rates much they'll crash the housing market along with auto lending.



Nah, it's not only the Dems, they just a bit more aggressive.

An extremely complex equation.

On one hand the Fed believes the economy is still fragile enough to need low interest rates. But Biden and congress are working against the Fed by shoveling so much money into the economy that people won't work. Remember that one of the Fed's mandates is to pursue full employment. So as long as people refuse to work, we will not have increased supply of goods that people want to buy. Aggregate demand at this point is far outstripping supply. That is why we are seeing such a jump in CPI numbers.

There is also some degree of distortion in those one-month numbers due to the bump in retail spending in the "re-opening trade". But there is no hiding the fact that the numbers greatly surprised the 'experts'.

In previous years if analysts had predicted a million new jobs and missed the estimate by 50,000 that would have been HUGE. Here we have them missing by about 75%. That is astronomical !

In my mind there is no question that completely irrational spending by congress, has already done permanent structural damage to the labor market. It is one saving grace that unions are not as powerful as they were in the 1970's or things would be even worse. But looking at the current administration we may as well have Jimmy Hoffa in the white house. Big companies can afford to increase wages but small ones can't. If enough companies can raise wages all that does is fuel an increasing wage/price spiral. Those of us who remember the 1970's remember the term "stagflation" . That could be where we are headed. High inflation and high unemployment.

We must encourage congress members to not pass the ridiculous 'infrastructure' bill. We do not need another 4-5 trillion dollars dumped into the mess they have already created.

But the question is can the Fed control it. MAYBE........but every single thing has go exactly right. Not likely.

If you look at the futures curves for different commodities...you can draw the conclusion that the Fed is correct that inflation is transitory. The curves indeed show a bump in inflation for a few months but then it declines back to what we have been used to over the past year or so.

But it is also clear from those curves that even though they decline ..........the levels they return to are still elevated. Example is lumber. Lumber is currently up 300% from last year !! The curve flattens next fall and shows lumber futures returning to ONLY a 200% increase over last year.

Like Sniper mentioned the Fed is scared to death to raise rates even though they SHOULD.

I think if things continue as they are now, the bond market vigilantes will rise from the dead and drive long rates higher. The Fed will be almost powerless to control them.

The Fed has one tool. Short rates. If they raise them, as they should , that will bump up treasury yields and both the bond market and stock markets will tank. We will see a credit contraction and a recession.

I doubt that Powell has the guts to do it..........especially with Yellen at Treasury.

The one person who is happy about this is Jimmy Carter. He is no longer considered the worst president ever.

Remember that old White17 saying...............'transitory' rhymes with 'suppository' and that is exactly what Biden has planned for us. IMO

Local pizza place owner said today that items usually costing him $1500/week were $2300 today! He said he can't raise his prices enough to cover the increases.

Ken, you lay the blame solely on Biden? Interesting, although he is culpable, there is plenty to go around. This path was started a long time ago. Carter had help as well, the two presidents before him spent like drunken sailors.


"Enough companies" can only raise wages if the money supply has been inflated. 22 percent of dollars in circulation was created in 2020, we are probably up to 35 to 40 percent in the last 18 months. Inflation is the logical conclusion.

Just think, food prices aren't considered in the inflation numbers. Food is going to get expensive.

Dang that stinks. I wonder how many mom and pop operations will close because of inflation.

It's taken less than 4 months for Biden and company to absolutely wreck the economy and country. Hold on to your hats, it's going to get nasty by the end of this term.

I am not a Biden fan or a fan of any democrat, But this problem is due to all of our Senators and Representatives. Every one of them along with Trumph helped in the digging of this hole and are still digging, The only difference now is there is a new man at the front of the shovel

Biden? I am no fan but the first stimulus and economic incentives to stay unemployed were signed by Trump. It was Trump who first agreed to shut the country down for the so called pandemic

That's true Steven. It isn't entirely his fault but he certainly bears all the blame for not seeing it as the problem it is and for pushing to make it worse.

Being charitable....as is my nature............. I have to admit that I don't think the poor guy can put a cogent thought together. He's only doing what he's told and reading what is written for him. Then again, he never had much to work with anyway.

I do believe some of that was necessary. Regardless of who did it, the economy was taking a beating from the virus. But I think it has gone way too far at this point.

The numbers given by Barron's this morning show the money supply .....M2 up 26% year over year..........the largest increase since 1943.

The M1 " very liquid money supply" is up 316% over the same time period.

Can't argue with you there, Ken.

Jim

I wonder if theres any way that the Fed can just read the riot act to the legislature/Biden admin and tell them they wont buy anymore bonds..who else is buying them at this time really? Speaking of T-bonds, it sounds like one of the plans, if it hasnt already been passed is that the Fed can sell off the bonds and the union pensions, or maybe pensions in general, will be required to invest a very large chunk of the pensions in t-bonds.

Soylent Green.