The number I gave came from here.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/economy/march-jobs-report-coronavirus/index.html

But I'm glad to go with your numbers. 4% with 13 million jobs lost. Long way to go to get to 10%. We'll see where we go, we may get to 10%, which will put us at a place we've been before.

The report you cited is March numbers, March is a lifetime away.

The unemployment rate as of the 25 of April was 18 percent.

Virginia had 900 reported cases on Saturday alone and 44 deaths. Their worst day yet.

I am still keeping my distance and washing my hands. When we go to a store, the wife goes inside and I stay in the car. Nice guy, huh.

Yes we don't want people to overreact next fall when this starts all over again. That is if it actually slows over the summer the way we all hope it will.

I think the key to remember is the media always wants people to watch them, so they have to make things bigger then they are. Whether we're talking Covid deaths or a bad economy, the media will make it worse then it is. But how people died is no longer driving the shut downs, and I think the majority of people understand this.

Actually I'm looking forward to the next 30 days to see how things go. If states that have opened are seeing more cases, we have to see more cases we're testing more, but the hospitals are able to handle things, what will the other states do. Oregon has almost 4 times as many people as Nebraska but just a few more deaths, yet their governor said she was extending their shut down till July. I don't think people will stand for it. It's going to be an interesting summer if states that opened don't have big problems, and other states stay locked down. The number of deaths excuse is meaningless when other states are open for business and are managing their cases without overloading their hospitals.

Of course there's still the possibility opening up will spike the cases to the point too many people need hospital care and they get overrun. We'll hope that is not the case.

As more and more states open up, it will be interesting to see how those numbers go down.

An even more interesting time to check numbers will be when the extra $600 goes off unemployment. Too many people can make more money while sitting at home. I saw a small business owner went to all the work, and got the loan so they could pay their employees. But the employees were all ticked off, they wanted the unemployment with the extra $600. The small business owner couldn't believe her employees were all mad at her for trying to help.

So now the goal posts move. We might get over 10% in one of your comments but now that Steven has shown we've surpassed that and are already at 18% you resort to "it will be interesting to see how those numbers go down." No I don't think it will be interesting to see. Life is going to be hard for a lot of people. I also don't think the numbers are just going to go down. You can't just snap your fingers and expect the world to be what it was before Covid-19. No matter how bad you want to tell yourself we will just rebound. I am about the farthest person from a tin hat, prepper, or conspiracy theorist but the writing is on the wall.

The goal posts haven't moved, in the end it's always about the numbers going up and then going back down, and it will be interesting to see how fast that happens.

You must feel millions of businesses are going to close down, I believe you said something to that affect a while back. At least that's what it's going to take for your prediction of an economy that won't rebound in our lifetime to come true. It's interesting you don't like media driven hysteria about Covid deaths, yet it seems you have fully bought in to the media driven doom and gloom for our economy. Remember as far as the media is concerned a bad economy is the only thing that could possibly get Trump out of the oval office, so they're going to keep pushing it as hard as you do.

You won't snap your fingers and see all jobs come back, but they will come back. Some businesses will close, but others will open and provide new jobs.

You're right about one thing, the world isn't going to be like before Covid 19. One of the biggest changes I see is a distrust around the world for China, and I fully expect to see Trump exploit that distrust. American businesses will come home, seeing the disadvantage of doing business in China, and they will be bringing new jobs here. Other countries will shift to doing business with the US instead of China, looking for security, again meaning more new jobs here. This pandemic will change the world, but I feel when we're talking about the economy it will make it better for us not worse.

Look around the country. States are opening up, businesses are opening back up, and people are happy to be going back to work. States with governors that keep their people in forced lock downs are seeing those people protesting, wanting to go back to work. In those states the virus isn't keeping the doors closed on businesses, it's strictly politicians playing politics.

Now I am interested in one thing from your post, the bold part. Just what is the writing on the wall? I understand the world is filled with people that see the glass half empty instead of half full, but I'm wondering what writing on the wall you see that makes you feel the economy won't rebound in our lifetime.

A new candidate for the most rediculous thing ever posted.

There's lies, dang lies, and statistics.

Covid killed some people before we started counting. If you die, your rate is 100%.

I guess.

Do some research, BTW job numbers are typically a lagging indicator.

Since when did record unemployment rates become an indicator for an economic meltdown. In retrospect, I suppose, the unemployment rate can only get worse once it hits zero?

It's going to take a little more than that to convince me covid 19 didn't cause the collapse of our economy.

I believe we will have an economic recovery similar to those following The Great Depression and the World Wars. There will be an economic boom created by businesses starting up in the U.S.A. after watching our food and drug supplies manipulated by China, as well as a host of other industries. Our freedom creates resilience and will allow us to recover quickly, given some decent leadership. It won't be overnight, but I see some steady economic growth bin our country once this ridiculousness is over. The Joker in this whole thing is all the " economic stimulus" plans being floated around. If there is any kind of monthly payment plan to the American populace, we are screwed. This whole thing stinks of a way for the Federal Government to take over the "broken" if not "broke" health care system. A lot of moving targets out there at this point. I am still holding cash until I see some positive movement towards the Republic we were founded on.

"This whole thing stinks of a way for the Federal Government to take over the "broken" if not "broke" health care system."

You mean a socialized health care system like Italy? We saw how that worked.

. I said the economy has been sliding since September. Three rate cuts in 2019, the Fed firing up the printing presses back in September that doesn't happen when things are healthy.

Our economy hasn't collapsed yet.

What go happen when trump find out who in China responsible for careless incident of releasing viris unintentionally or even intentional from lab ? Nothing ? China military supposably more powerful US, when I heard it was man made viris., I believe it, something very like flu, no, I don't believe it, others say, that I read trssh when it say release from lab, well turn out I right , official now. It on news,

I think there was a pretty good chance all along they had an accident and the virus got out of the lab.But in the end I don't think that's what will hurt China the most.

China hid the outbreak on day one so they could stockpile medical supplies before any other countries knew there would be a need. Then when information came out about the virus they downplayed the severity to continue stockpiling medical supplies. That is what's going to hurt them the most with everyone else around the world.

Most countries can't do much about it, though I did see the UK may be changing their mind on China handling their 5K. The US has the best shot at doing something that will have an affect, and they can do that economically. A lot of people complained about the tariffs Trump placed on China, but in the end they worked, and China had to come around. A side benefit to that was some companies saw the advantage of moving back home with jobs, and now with the virus even more companies will make that move.

Once things settle down here a little I think you will see Trump go after China economically as a way to make them pay for what happened. Maybe this is one time it pays to have a businessman in office instead of a career politician.

I will let you read this as I am not going to point out all the highlights. I've never considered myself much of an economist but it's pretty crystal clear. As to being similar to the Great Depression and World Wars and then the words "will allow us to recover quickly," from all information I can find the recovery took at minimum 10 years. I don't find that too quickly personally but everyone has their own idea of quickly.

https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/recovery.htm

I also like this graph..


The stimulus money is definitely another issue at hand. People are making more money staying home on "unemployment" then they did when they were working. What makes you guys think they are going to jump right back into the labor force?

I think anyone in their right mind has seen how government provided healthcare worked for Italy. It would be madness to fall into that mess. I do find it interesting finally, after weeks of me mentioning it they are finally coming out with studies that show ventilating patients was the wrong choice.

"Mortality rates for those who received mechanical ventilation in the 18-to-65 and older-than-65 age groups were 76.4% and 97.2%, respectively. Mortality rates for those in the 18-to-65 and older-than-65 age groups who did not receive mechanical ventilation were 19.8% and 26.6%, respectively (JAMA, 2020)."


Once again something that might have been able to be avoided if there wasn't such a fear of the virus itself ran wild with by the media. Some protocols I have seen were intubating patients at 92% oxygen saturation. We typically don't even apply oxygen to someone until they are below 90% and these people were being intubated.

I'm not sure holding your cash or burying it in the yard is a great choice at this moment. At some point that cash might be worthless. I've done rather well over the last month and a half. Seeing some 30% to 60% daily gains on different stocks. I've got some in for the long haul but I am jumping in the "don't let a crisis go to waste," boat.

It is my opinion the last depression took so long to recover from because Roosevelt's implementation of socialism.

I dont see any good coming from all this stimulous either. I am beginning to suspect the reason this virus thing was, and is, so overblown, was to create a reason for a stimulus package. Keep all the plates spinning and balanced