stock market and GDP

Right on cue. Bobo needs a hook to hang his hat on so boom the GDP is so high the financial world goes crazy. Why was the GDP so elevated one might ask? Well you know Biden increased oil output for the US the end of October. Guess what happened to 90% of that oil. IT GOT EXPORTED = GDP increase. Next, one other export that inflated that number. You guessed it ARMS. Military aid. Humanitarian aid.

Last week market had 3 bad days but Biden adm revised unemployment numbers and pop goes the weasel. I'm sure several on here are way up for the year (on paper). But I have friends that have their 401 k in the market and call wondering why they are still so far in the red .

Government spending is also included in the GDP.

Yes all government purchases etc. federal, state and local are included in the GDP with the exception of transfers and social security.

Bryce

How did Biden increase oil output in October? Didn't even know he was in the oil biness?

Wars are always great for the economy.

lifted restrictions in the usa.

They're definitely doing something wrong or taking the wrong advice.

X2. Must be invested in the wrong segments of the market

Only thing I can find is removing sanctions against Venezuela for October, 2023.

And why I'm going to get as close to maxing my 401 limit out early in the year and then lowered it just enough to try to get 100% of my company match for the year.

I figured it will be an off the charts year for the markets to make Biden look good and I want to have as much in the market as I can early in the year to take advantage of that growth.

Hmmmm

What do you think of my backwoods assessment? On target or tin foil hat?


My next issue will be to guess when to back it down. Now I'm putting in 25%. Made 124.700 last year. BUT I only worked 14 days in oct and November and had cut back on hours some about August. I can't guess so will take the wait and see approach and back it if when it hits ? Amount for the year but I can't even figure out what that amount should be. Put in 3225.75 ytd and made 12,7xx.xx so far. Should be around 16k next Friday.

I'm sure someone better at math could figure out a formula but there are to many unknowns for me to . Mainly #of hrs pre month worked by the month. This week I have 88 and am shooting for 96 last week was 44hrs next week who knows.

But I will have more hrs in the first 6 months of the year I do know.

Well I think your determination to put away as much as you can AND maximize the company match makes perfect sense.

The reason behind it may not be the same as mine but that doesn't matter. The fact that you are doing it is the important part.
I don't think the markets will take much notice of the election until after Labor Day. Until then, the Fed is front & center in the market's thinking.

The markets hate uncertainty and they get that with both candidates. Whatever the government spends, the Fed has to try to offset. But I suspect the markets will view Trump as more of a wild card, and thus a greater uncertainty.

The Fed can disappoint the markets easily this year and I think that is getting closer.

The Fed has indicated they MAY reduce rates as many as three times in 2024 but the market heard that as 7 times. So I expect some disappointment one of these days.... maybe even next week after the Fed meeting. Pay attention to what Powell says and how it differs from what he said last month.

The last time the Fed was really political was when Yellen was the chairman. Thank god she's not still there.

Just have to make your plan and stick with it until the circumstances change. At this point it is all based on the Fed IMO

Thanks White17. Always appreciate your input.

Probably worth exactly what you paid for it !!

)))))))))!!!!!!!!!

Yep I plan on Maxing out both Roth and 401 limits among other investments Each year hopefully I can retire like plan at 57 and one month old and live a comfortable life style. I figured more time in the market even if it's only a few months more on small amount could help.

I always appreciate your thoughtful responses.

Be careful about maxing out a 401k. I did that, at one point putting in 50 percent of my salary. When I retired I had a “goodly” amount of money in the thing. Because of other investments, I make more money now than when I was working. I have moved my self into higher tax brackets. When I start taking my money out of, what was a 401k, but is now a traditional IRA, I am going to be paying more in taxes than I would have before I retired. I kind of wish now that I had just put enough in the 401k to get the company match. I should have taken the extra money I put in and invested it in other things. I would have paid taxes on the money at a lower rate.
I also maxed out my Roth, but that doesn’t affect my taxes.

Sullivan K, you need an enjoyable business that despite your best efforts, loses money. You can make vehicles and other stuff part of the business. You can deduct business losses from your income.

You mean like trapping?

Dont over think things put your money in a total stock market index or S&P index and leave it for 20 years and you will make 8% with compound interest. Jumping in and out or trying to time the market will kill you. As far as Biden or any other president being able to manipulate the stock market just does not happen. If Biden could manipulate the markets why didnt he do it from day one?

Yes like trapping 65 cents a mile,
2500 miles during season, $4.00 coons equals a big deduction. Lol

I almost always have to pay taxes on my trapping. You guys got all the angles figured out.

Yes, when one retires and have saved well tax brackets can be an issue and so are deductable items that keep taxes lower within brackets. I too probably deferred into my 403b at a higher level than I needed to and today to help lower AGI we do QEOs to our chairtable organizations which helps keep our gains taxes in the lower brackets.
To me if one has had retirement accounts that are still lower than they were 15 months ago or so, the sectors they are in could be poor performers or they may have done some investment changes because they were not happy with their losses and their new investments are not performing well either.
We have some investments we have held since 1975. Not the splash in the pan ones but over time they have been solid for us. When doing the QEOs one can choose which items and we are choosing ones with the largest capital gains taxes due and that helps lower the total taxes due.

Bryce

2008 and 2020

Or have a farm. .

Question: If the Fed's board of governors' are appointed by the President (confirmed by Senate), then wouldn't the President have considerable sway in the behavior of the Fed based on who they choose to put on the board?

Depends up on if the executive branch wan't to influence the financial industry via politics or if they would like to have the more private sector determine the use of funds and fueling the economy. It is most likely nevery unbiased, it is a matter or more or less so.

Bryce

The president should is not in charge of the economy. Not his job. Protect the people from enemies and guide the country by the Constitution. Every up and down we experience in financial markets is not the responsibility of the president. No President can control the economy.

A lot of what moves the market now is all the social media BS that people believe.

One way to lower the sound byte aspect is to follow wider market projection options like S & P 500 which covers a much wider range of companies and sectors then things like the Dow which moves many times when someone sneezes.

Bryce

Let us know when a candidate summoning the spirit of Calvin Coolidge has a chance of being elected again.

Sure they can't control oil production, permits, import tariffs, ECT.. yes the president/, administration can do a lot that has a big effect on the economy.

I think GDP is one financial ratio to consider but not the only one to make decisions from- GDP grows with more predictability than market fluctuations and is one of Buffet's favorite indices. The current ratio of 185% is approximately 51.54% (or about 1.7 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Overvalued relative to GDP... sure looks like a bubble?

Geopolitics could throw a huge monkey wrench into everyone's financial gears!

Companies don’t report to Biden. They have boards, officers, and stock holders. If they did cook their books for one President, then the other half would do it for the opposing president.

I don’t think public corporations are run like this. Maybe MyPillow was, but he ran his own company (into the ground).

Today's stock market is a crap shoot. There are no fundamentals to compare to see the health of a company or future health. Today if unemployment drops stock market rises. GDP drops stock market drops. Non of that or other of today's economic news has 1 single value to judge the health of a stock.

It's pretty much turned into a casino.

Save all you can and when the currency dissolves in a few years due to printing too much, 34 trillion in debt now and climbing, all those millions you have stock piled will be worth exactly the same thing all those confederate dollars were worth the plantation owner's had stock piled after the civil war ended!

Devalued dollars not going to buy much in the future.

Charles, you sound confused. I don't think anyone is talking about companies, here. We're talking about monetary policy (the Fed) and fiscal policy (the Prez and congress).

But, personally, I believe you're right. The economy would actually be bipartisan if the companies controlled it without governmental interference. So maybe we agree for a change?

I believe Charles is on point.

Ummm might break down Ford little stunt in 2021 -22 with reporting ev handouts as profit to surge their stock and push the market up. They were not alone. But once they started to invest it and saw the black hole that money was going in they stopped that program.
But time will tell. Things are great in make believe money town right now. But historically stocks trading over 33% of value is not a good thing. Winter is coming. I’ll leave that there .
Have great weekend everyone