Now who will buy fur?

Well, I guess I voted for him. As the DOW dumps another 720 today, mainly because of Trump's tarrif talk on China, among others, the future of fur isn't too bright.
FHA had basically zero PT sales on Marten, and things don't appear to be looking up.

Do marten usually get PT'd if the room didnt want them at FHA's price?

I don't remember the last time I had Marten carry over.

China has a 30 percent tariff on imported fur that stays in China.Who's pocket does that come out of?
Maby ,,,,standing up to China on their tariffs will have a positive outcome later.
They will continue to rape the USA if we continue to be spineless on trade issues,and their theft of our intellectual ,and technological material.
About time a president stood up to China.

Well said. No one cares that the tariff on fur exists except the trapper. LLL

I agree as well,well said.They can play ball or have fun unloading all the cheap goods.

Well said Phil. It won't stop the anti-Trump bawl-babies on here from trying to make it into something else but I won't see it, because I won't open this thread again now that I know what its about.

~ADC~

Um....said I voted for him. And fur is the least of my worries. Just a note that our fur has struggled globally for several years, and this, along with Russian sanctions, is going to be a rough ride.
As to clearing out lower 48 Marten 100 percent, what was your average?

I would be more willing to blame the 300,000 plus ranch sable that sold in Russia a few weeks ago on poor martin prices than the Donald. I hope he fixes our trade mess and am willing to let him have a chance. The other dinks we have been letting rule us the last 40 years have done such a wonderful job (not).

Be careful. Expect more volatility and losses in the stock and fur market, as more of Trump's policies take effect.

Jim

The sale in Russia offered 320,000 fresh wild sable, production was up 20% prices dropped 20 to 30%
The total offering of farm raise sable was around 65,000 which mainly went unsold.

x2

Since marten prices were also down by 30% this year compared to last year,what do you see as the basement for marten Jim.Is it there now or will the price be off another 10 to 20 percent at the up coming sales,in your opinion.

Idk. He is taking on issues head on that he ran his campaign on. Who would have guessed the Dow would hit 26,000 so quickly.

Well said!

Chris

My gut feeling is the market will drop some more, since the NAFA Feb. sale both SAGA and Kopenhagen have drop a few % but the bigger concern is the lack of clearances. The main reason for the better clearances on marten at NAFA over Fha was the Korean buyers who came mainly for the black mink offering. Having almost all the best black mink in the world has an advantage.

So unemployment is down, minimum wage is up! Your 401 just took a beating, and life is good!
Oh, by the way, all that cheap stuff you are used to buying from Amazon just went up 30 percent.

What is Amazon?

Chris

Jim won't pass up a chance to get a dig in.

Jim

Don't order off Amazon anymore, tried it once ordered a 400 page book and received a 367 page knockoff. Took my lump and will never order another product from them ever. What was the Dow again when President Trump took office?

Like it or not, Trump is making decisions that should have been done years ago for the sake of THIS country. I have no doubt there's going to be some corrections to the stock market. Fur isn't going up any time soon.

I agree with James . As long as these ridiculous tariffs are in place things will get worse. Not better.

Asian markets are down 3% and climbing on news of China's response.

Guess as consumers we should buy more U.S.A made... I'm fine with China paying tariffs and sick of their junk products they send over here. Glad!

We'll see who blinks first. China needs us more than we need them. Idle factory workers might sit around and think of things such as...democracy. China is still the 2nd largest economy. They can't keep their people quiet just producing for themselves and more minor economies.

Grab your popcorn and sit back and watch North America win and win hugely! You Hillary worshippers take a few notes and come join in on the fun.

Probably hurt agri-business the worst as China will retaliate with tariffs on U.S. grain and meat.

When they get hungry they will lift them. I could care less if we feed the world, or police it.

I think we are going to win hugely too. They need our money and materials.

Keith

just part of making America great again.glad to see someone in power grow a set.

Well, we certainly can't consume everything we grow/produce, either. Hope you have all the traps you need, because the price of steel is going up. Snares, too. Oh, and lure. And glass, shoes, that desk you are sitting at, the chair you are sitting IN, the computer you are looking at, your cell phone, television, microwave, stove, vehicle, etc.
We have a global economy, like it or not. When one of the big fellas says , NO FAIR", and the other says, "POUND SAND", we all lose, to some degree or another.
Make no mistake. China evolving into a global economic giant has allowed the average U.S. citizen to live like royalty.

Why is everyone ok with china getting rich from tarrifs but isnt ok with us having tarrifs?

I will scrape by. I have 1000's of traps, 1000's of feet of cable. Then cut back on what we grow. Sooner or later we have to stand up. You can't take it in the rear forever. Think of how many country's we are propping up. How much do we send out a year in so called aid? It has been a one way street for too long.

China has had an initiative to be self-sufficient for the last 20 years and there is no stopping that. Best we can do is slow it down. There's a really informative story written in early 2017 buy Amy Karam titled, (China to be self-sufficient by 2025_ what about the rest of us?) It doesn't go indepth on just how shafted we are but you'll get the idea.

If there's any Syfy people on here think (Firefly) or (Serinaty) Spanish won't be the second language of America in 50-100 years it will be Chinese.

Or maybe I'm just paranoid.

I dont think you inderstand that when steel and aluminum products increase pennies to the consumer and smelters open back up and pay 1000s of people a 100k a year it can completely changes towns economies...not that i know anything about that tho...just use to make it at alcoa before it shut down because china flooded the aluminum market to tried to take the market over...now there is talk about opening our smelter back up and employing 400 people again...

China produces almost twice as much food as we do

China already has tarrifs

Yeah and they have 4x the number of people as we do.

How do you define food?

If they're so self sufficient how come they buy 60-65% of the soybeans offered on the global market...?

They also produce the vast majority of finished products, including fur garments.

Yea treat all that junk like we should have oil during obummer. THEY CAN"T eat it and they want the money. Instead of them telling us what we must pay for it do them like the farmers let us tell them what we are willing to pay for it. WOW do them like trappers are done let the buyer set the price !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I imagine China could survive without soybeans if not they can get soybeans from other countries. Besides they use most of the soybeans for pig feed,so the could do away with the pigs and eat more fish.

China produces rice,wheat, potatoes, tomato,sorghum, peanuts,tea,millet,barley,cotton, oilseed and soybeans I could go on but that seems to be food to me. What do you think?

I read where one fourth of Chinas ag land is contaminated with heavy metals. You can't manufacture the volume they do with no oversight and not have consequences. I for one am proud of the Pres. for standing up for the US and the people in this country.

I agree , what the president is doing is the right thing, just 20 years to late. It will help the short term I believe.

I kinda wonder what will happen when the Chinese call our national debt back. From what I understand, we owe China a very large debt payment every year. It could become real rough in the states if China calls our debt back. Also never think our farmers can stand big tariffs put on their products. It won't only be China putting tariffs on products, it will be a lot of nations doing so.
If our farmers start going under, it won't be long and our economy will falter terribly bad.We are going to be in for a rough ride in a couple of years. Tariffs are never a good thing. They always cause economic problems.

Our Dept to China I don't feel is as big of a deal as most,sure it's not a good thing to owe another country larges amounts of money but what can they really do if we don't pay them? War would be the only thing and since we're still the big boys on the block I doubt that happens anytime soon.

Kind of ironic that China is in the same place Japan was in the thirties: a newly powerful country trying to expand it's influences in unlawful ways.It is dependent on other countries for raw resources if it wants to keep expanding at the current rate. It will be like Japan and try to grab more territory. Remember, Japan wanted metals and oil. China wants the same.

We can always sell nukes to Japan. Takes care of a lot of issues to include Little rocketman. China is already calling for talks on trade. Without our cash and grain things will not be good in China either. Billions of hungry communists will result in uprisings for Chi. He will not want to deal with things the way they have dealt with them before. World is watching to closely now. Drop fur tariffs and quit manipulating your currency China. LLL

My point was what are people consuming directly and what's being used for animal feed and industrial uses? You have some nice Chinese recipes for sorghum and millet or are they feeding their meat critters that stuff or making beer out of the sorghum? China has a long history of having limited protein sources per capita. They have a lot more meat now than in their past and their people like it. And the increased meat production is maintained by the importing certain percentages of feed stock (corn, sorghum, soybeans, etc). If they could buy all the soybeans they want//need from Brazil and Argentina (these 2 countries + the US sell over 90% of the soybeans on the global market) they would, but there's an extra cost shipping those beans from the south Atlantic through the PC and across the Pacific versus shipping them from the Pacific Northwest. Trade wars are complicated. Geography matters.

The US imports very little animal feed sources whereas China imports a considerable amount. Again, who is going to blink first...?

My point is they may like meat but I bet they could do without it and find other sources for protien. I like ribye steak and pork chops but I can live without them , maybe

Let them eat cake.

Do you think Chinese fur buyers might get a little nervous about a trade war and we could see a small spike in the market in the next two or three months?

A tariff is paid by American consumers. It will have little affect on communist China.

The tariff on fur in China is paid by the trapper as well. When they slapped those tariffs on us our leadership at the time said nothing. It is part of the puzzle that helped put prices where they are today. LLL

The major factor where prices are today is the overproduction of ranch mink. Kopenhagen sale is down 5 percent across the board do to mink being stock piled from previous seasons.

It is unfortunate but IMO, the reality of a trade war with China will result in higher prices for the American consumer.....yep, me and you will foot the bill.

So much of what we buy is made in China and much of it is no longer made in the US so the alternate sources are limited.

This line of thinking is why we have a deficit. If you set up a booth at a flea market don't you pay to sell your goods?

Tax them

Deficits aren't bad in and of themselves.

jbyrd, That is just like saying Tax the Corporations. Corporations do not pay tax, their customers pay the tax that is passed on as higher prices. The same thing will happen with China.

We have deficits because China produces more goods that are competitive in our market than the goods we produce that are competitive in the China market. Simple economics.

You want to reduce the deficit, stop buying anything made in China. With the market share of China produced goods in the US today, that is much easier said than done. And like I posted earlier, the US no longer produces many of the items imported from China so if you stop buying Chinese, where are you going to get your products?

The reason China is dominant in so many markets is that they are the low cost producer and the reasons for that are a whole other subject that can be debated ad nauseum.

agreed Phil!!!

i should be and so should everybody else.This will be my first year buying raw fur if that counts.not hoping to buy much though.

folks that are against this are forgetting one thing. If they raise terrifs on our goods even higher than they are now, it wil hurt us i agree, but don't forget, it will also raise the prices their own people pay too.

Both sides lose in a trade war. There is no winning.

Yep, and a one sided trade war only one side loses.

Who has bought whos debt, and who has the high tariffs?

Let US decice what goods we want. How simple is that? Can't be more simple, I don't think.

Youwanna buyya gizmo? Good, find a seller that meets YOUR needs. We don't need a 'campin sheriff' involved in markets.

Well, markets are down big-time, globally. As are asain monetary value. Oh, and Italy doesn't even HAVE a government, right now.
Wonder what the attendance will be at the next couple of auctions?

alaska viking, what markets are down big time?

Tariffs between nations of somewhat equal GDP per capita wind up being a wash for consumers with both going up. One thing I don't understand is if we think that a 25% tariff that China imposes on our goods and we impose a similar tariff is going to even come close to washing out, I think is mistaken. We have had posts after posts through the years stating how poor the average Chinese person is compared to us and we feel that they are going to keep buying at the same pace with their lower income? They are a nation or a culture that have lived for thousands of years longer than we have by doing with what they have, saving and not taking on great debt. Sure tariffs will impact their growth rate some but it will still be higher than ours and as a nation and a government they are far more willing and able to restrict living expenses to accomplish their goals be that best for families or a nation and short or long term. We can add India, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico and others to that list as well.
In 30 years we will be 5% of the World's population and where do you think large scale commodities and consumer goods are going to be going?

Bryce

Have you looked at wall Street, commodities, etc.?

You will feel this at the grocery store, the gas pump, the shoe store, your heating bill, the dentist, you name it.
Oh, and fur will plunge even further.

I like the way you think! I see a bidding war on muskrats at the next NAFA auction!

Nope. I feel it should be shut down. I feel if you buy something you should have to take possession of it. The problem with Wall Street is it can be manipulated. Maybe that is why we have the tariffs. How much money could be made if you knew it was going to drop that much right before it happened and have the power to raise it back up?

You would get to see Martha Stewart's temporary home if you did that.

I think our country is more inportant than our hobbies or even a way of living.

Hello? When the price of commodities drops drastically, so goes the wage for those that help produce it!

Not necessarily,depends for how long they have dropped.And just how much they have dropped.
You people are way to simple in a complex real world.

For the first 100 years or so the federal government was
financed thru tariffs,then we dropped the tariffs and replaced it
with income/corporate tax,when you lower taxes you have to make it up somewhere.
When a foreign government owns/subsidizes heavily with cheap labor,cheap/free energy,
and then has no agency for environmental impact then ship it around the world
and sell it cheaper than we can make it here, like they are,we have a problem.
Our plants cannot compete in this environment,so they will close.
Steel and aluminum are too important for national defense to let that happen,
funny none of the media had a real problem when the last admin. imposed a
500 percent duty tax on imported steel in 2016,they reported it but not
the same way they are demonizing Trump for implementing a 25 percent tax.
The media is saying (and some believe)that Trump is creating a trade war,
truth is he is reacting to one.
500 percent duty tax

Will someone explain that to the mink ranchers?

The 4-5 million mink produced in the USA could all be removed from the market and Europe and China could produce enough. The main reason our fur is important is we have the highest quality ranch mink here. What matters most is what type of fur will or does the world want, lower cost average type fur or higher quality? Capitalism will probably find a way to move almost any product through routes that will avoid or limit the tariffs. It has been going on all along and the Chinese and smuggling ranch fur through Hong Kong was just one of the latest examples from just a fur aspect. Tariffs in many ways create a semi- legal black market system. Will our companies and importers be able to find the ways to import without those duties?

Bryce

Mongolia

Way,way way higher than when Obama took office.

Trump has not been there long enough to have had an effect, time will tell...

I don't claim to understand the stock market, but I'd guess there's enough heavy hitters in there that the DOW is run similar to Congress, with the good ol boys scratching each others backs.

Did you buy that from Amazon, or did you buy that from a third-party seller on Amazon?

That is not the only reason stocks dumped. It was the 1.3 trill spending bill that was signed friday along with rising interest rates. That had more to do with it than tariff's.

So then this recent drop of the market has nothing to do with the tariffs?

Hate to tell ya, but the market jumps even at the talk of something.

It had more to do with rising interest rates and the 1.3 trill spending bill. The market new tariff's were coming.

They don't want to talk about that though. That would point the finger at Congress and the Federal Reserve monitary policies.

Wall Street was expecting a 1/4 point rate hike. The question was, 3 hikes this year, or 4? The growth in jobs, along with the steel and aluminum tarriffs, as well as inflationary concerns led to the sell-off in February.

The budget, coupled with the possibility of a trade war of global proportions added fuel to the fire.
I fear we have not seen the worst, yet.

The Fed in the past has said it was going to raise interest rates many times then backed out of it. They didn't back out this time. Watch the market fall everytime interest rates rise. The Tariff's when implemented will bring it down further.Retail sales has fell the past 3 month's. If prices rise further because of tariff's it will only get worse.

Also add in the 1.3 trill spending bill that was signed Friday by Trump who said he didn't want to sign it but did anyway(and the Repubs were screaming about Obama's spending). This rising debt coupled with rising interest rates is unsustainable witch the new Fed chairmen admitted while being questioned by Congress just a couple weeks ago.

Hey just stop the whole nonsense they call the stock market. IT IS ALL ON PAPER.. Let them get real jobs . Tell china to blow us and everyone stop whining about what someone else is doing.. !!!!!!!!

WRONG about the retail market . Americans spent more last quarter of the year than ever before. THE RETAIL SHOPS have lower sales because everyone is using the on-line ordering

Yeah buddy! Get a dollar bill out of your pocket and tell the folks what that's on.

LOL,
That made me think of something my dad said one day yeeeeears ago.

We've always had trucks, and my older brother was old enough to drive at the time. Brother takes off bob-tailing up the road. We watched him go, shifting pretty fast obviously.

Dad looked at me and said, "he sure likes to shift gears..............If he only knew how."

Yeah, that worthless paper your paycheck is written on, your fur check, your bank statement....It's all imaginary, until you convert it to paper money. Well, and ink, and Wall Street saying the government is good for it.

Really ? Online sales is part of retail sales,as of now 9.10 % of it actually. Rising by about 1% from a year ago.



https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales

There is the guy in the Trap She'd that prefers to trade for silver coin money.

Me to.

i'll take gold also.

Isn't that the basis behind Trump's entire campaign? Why do we have to have everything made in China? Was it not made in the United States before?

That's the thing I don't get about everyone that complains about Trump, for the first time in as long as I can remember a president is doing exactly what he said he'd try to do, and everyone is losing their minds. He said he wasn't going to take China's continued abuse, and he's doing it. I enjoy a guy with some intestinal fortitude.

If that means I have to take a few years off trapping because the money isn't quite there so be it. The amount of money lost in fur is a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of jobs/money/lives China has sucked out of the American economy for years.

When in American history has a tarrif battle benefited the people?

It's not the Tariff war part of it that will be bad. It's when China quits buying US treasuries and bond's and start's to sell what it has.That's the gun to our head. That's when the National debt comes into play ! That's the part of this the government and mainstream media is not talking about,they want to keep the mass's like mushrooms. Deficit's and debt matter !

They will announce in 15 days what will be on the list for Tariff's and then 30 day's before they are implemented.During that time they will have negotiation's with China so it may not even happen. There are no tariff's in place yet.

Muddy riverdog are you with NBC or CNN? You just posted the chart that was singled out for non growth categories. Did you wonder why the chart didn't include NOVEMBER or DECEMBER. READ THE ARTICLE !! Retails sales rose 3.9% in Jan and 4.0% in FEb from last year. The big down fall was in gasoline sales but was based on dollar amount. DUH cheaper gas less monies !! Also who car shops in Jan or even Feb ?
My comment was based on the fact of retail sales increased and were at an all time high over the last quarter of 2017. Plus really , base info on Jan and Feb sales?. People are trying to pay heating bills and recover from Christmas spending. Paying for what they bought and charged DURING THE RECORD RETAIL SALES !!!!!






7 of 13 major retail categories showed month-over-month decreases: motor vehicle & parts dealers (-0.9 percent, the same as in January); gasoline stations (-1.2 percent vs 1.9 percent); furniture & home furniture stores (-0.8 percent vs -0.3 percent); health & personal care stores (-0.4 percent vs -0.2 percent); electronics & appliance stores (-0.1 percent vs 1.1 percent); food & beverage stores (-0.1 percent vs -0.2 percent); and general merchandise stores (-0.4 percent vs 0.4 percent).




Meanwhile, sales at gardening and building material stores surged 1.9 percent, recovering from a 1.7 percent decline in January. Additional upward pressure came from: sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (2.2 percent vs -1.5 percent); clothing & clothing accessories stores (0.4 percent vs 0.9 percent); miscellaneous store retailers (0.1 percent vs 3.5 percent); nonstore retailers (1 percent vs -0.9 percent); and food services & drinking places (0.2 percent vs 0.1 percent).


Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales edged up 0.1 percent last month after being unchanged in January.


Year-on-year, retail trade grew 4 percent in February, compared with a 3.9 percent rise in January.

Nope I'm with FOX.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/02/14/falling-auto-sales-drive-us-retail-sales-down-0-3-percent.html

Why didn't you post this one !!!!





https://tradingeconomics.com/articles/01122018134605.htm




US Retail Sales Rise 0.4% in December






US retail trade increased 0.4 percent month-over-month in December 2017, following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent rise in November and matching market expectations.



8 of 13 major retail categories showed month-over-month increases.




The December gain was mainly supported by higher sales at: gardening and building material stores (1.2 percent vs 0.5 percent in November); motor vehicle & parts dealers (0.2 percent vs -1 percent); furniture & home furniture stores (0.6 percent vs 0.5 percent); food & beverage stores (0.5 percent vs 0.4 percent); health & personal care stores (0.4 percent, the same pace as in November); general merchandise stores (0.1 percent vs 0.3 percent); nonstore retailers (1.2 percent vs 4.2 percent); and food services & drinking places (0.7 percent vs 0.5 percent).




Meanwhile, sales at service stations were unchanged last month, after a 3 percent jump in November. Additional downward pressure came from lower sales at: electronics & appliance stores (-0.2 percent vs 2.4 percent); clothing & clothing accessories stores (-0.3 percent vs 0.6 percent); sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (-1.6 percent vs 0.2 percent); and miscellaneous store retailers (-2.9 percent vs 3.8 percent).




Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month after an upwardly revised 1.4 percent surge in November.




Year-on, year, retail trade grew 5.4 percent, easing from a 6 percent increase in the previous month.




Considering 2017 as a whole, sales advanced 4.2 percent compared to 3.2 percent in 2016.

So you are blaming Trump's Tariff threat for the market drop ? It was dropping before then.

I am blaming the Fed's interest rate hike, declining retail sales, 1.3 trill spending bill(that will add to the US debt that China buy's) and Trump's Tariff threat(because a threat is all it is as of now).

But one thing that is deceiving about charts and growth categories. If the auto industry has record sales month in July and then sales fall off in June they look at it as a loss. When in reality it could have been their second best month ever. Stats reporting on sales can be deceiving to say the least. But it may effect trading because investors think loss when they hear sales are down not sales for profit ? Great way to manipulate stocks and take some hard working guys money so they can play with it. !!!!!!

ARE you asking me? I didn't get into market fall. Once again reporting at its finest. Is the market still higher than when he took office? I told ALL my buddies that could retire to bail the minute their 401 hit record levels. Now they are crying .... Told them suck it up you had your chance !!!!!

The market ALWAYS corrects itself......

"the market ALWAYS corrects itself".

Especially when the Fed raises or lower's interest rates and buy's and sells assets.

Ditto on this, brokers are waiting for North American Marten prices to adjust, and become more inline with the price levels that Russian Sables seem to have established. It makes sense for them, how many folks buy stocks when the stock market appears to be headed down, even when earlier sales of North American Sables were pretty good.

In the two days after Obama won office in Nov. of 2008, the stock market lost 10% of it's value. This was reported as caused by the perception of things to come.

Somebody tell me what will happen in 30 days? I earned 28% last year and still 3,000 pts up from a year ago.

my butt's too sore for things to keep going the way they were though,at least for me.

OP says "FHA had basically zero PT sales on Marten, and things don't appear to be looking up." I say if thing were "looking up" there would not have been any PT sales, even at FHA. Wasn't the sale well over before the Trurmp spoke of tarrif?
I am guessing no one will buy your marten at these levels. When they drop low enough they will sell.